91̽��

Image

Argentina’s trade policies between 1895 and 1950 changed the nation’s economic path. This period covers the transition from the First Globalization - when an export-led economy operated, characterized by Argentina’s role as a major exporter of agricultural commodities, significant European migration, British capital inflows, and mass import of manufactured products - to the rise of the import-substitution model, which emphasized the reliance on the domestic market.

In his doctoral thesis, Juan Pablo Juliá examines how tariffs, bilateral trade agreements, and exchange controls became central instruments of economic policy. At the same time, it situates these developments within a broader political and social context, encompassing the role of domestic parties, international partners such as the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as migrant labour movements. A striking conclusion is that Argentina’s core actors during the First Globalization - namely trade, migration, and British capital - continued to be central to the country’s political economy long after World War I.

“While the war marked the collapse of the pre 1914 international order, the deliberate policy shift in Argentina occurred only during the 1930s, through discriminatory policies that paradoxically combined continued British dominance with accelerated industrialization.”

The research also highlights the surprising stability of trade policy over time.

“Only drastic economic shocks, such as the 1929 collapse or the World Wars, could alter its design - and even then, many underlying characteristics persisted.”

Another interesting observation was the strong contradictions created by the trade disintegration that followed the 1929 crisis. While Argentina’s policymaking was heavily influenced by British interests - encouraging imports of UK products - industrialization nevertheless accelerated, reinforcing a sense of domestic self-sufficiency. These contradictions lay at the heart of the nationalist movements that emerged after the 1930s.

Relevance beyond Argentina

While focused on Argentina, the findings have broader implications. This study contributes to current debates on protectionism, trade wars, and political economy - but from the perspective of a peripheral country.

The findings show that trade policy in developing economies evolves slowly and in a quite complex way, even amid major global disruptions. This challenges simplistic narratives of openness and protectionism, highlighting the enduring influence of domestic political and institutional factors, rooted in economic structure and state formation processes.

“These insights are important for understanding how historical policy trajectories continue to shape current trade debates and for designing more consistent economic strategies in similar contexts.”

Impact on policymakers, researchers and the public

Policymakers can draw lessons about the long-term effects of trade dependence and the resilience of policy frameworks. Researchers gain new historical data and quantitative estimates to compare Argentina with other economies, and new methodologies to overcome data and sources constrains. The public, too, gains a deeper understanding of how historical forces continue to shape modern globalization debates.

Ultimately, Juan Pablo Juliá hopes the thesis will bridge historical analysis with contemporary development challenges. 

“Trade policy reflects not only external shocks but also internal power dynamics and economic conflicts.”